A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
