Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
