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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement is handed the prize. However, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

However this year's field is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and recent strugglers improving together. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still